Meelaha ugu Muhiimsan ee Isbeddellada Danab-sameeyayaasha Dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa Sare ee Caalamiga ah (2025-2026)

1. Casriyeynta Heerarka Waxtarka Tamarta iyo Isbeddelka Cagaaran: La-qabsiga Tamarta Cusub oo ah Muhiimadda

Guud ahaan, shuruudaha waxtarka tamarta ee warshadaha iyo Transformer-ka Danab Sares ayaa dardar gelinaya, la'aanta heerarka hufnaanta tamarta ee dhinaca cusub ee tamarta ayaa noqotay qodob muhiim ah sannadihii ugu dambeeyay. Bishii Abriil 2024, Shiinuhu wuxuu soo saaray nooca cusub ee Qiimaha ugu Yar ee La Ogol yahay ee Hufnaanta Tamarta iyo Darajooyinka Hufnaanta Tamarta ee Transformers-ka Korontada (GB20052-2024), kaas oo si rasmi ah loo hirgeliyay Febraayo 2025. Markii ugu horreysay, heerkani wuxuu ku darayaa transformers-ka 6kV-66kV ee loogu talagalay soo saarista tamarta cusub (fotovoltaic, tamarta dabaysha, kaydinta tamarta) ee xeerarka hufnaanta tamarta ee qasabka ah, oo daboolaya xaaladaha danabka ee caadiga ah ee isku xirka shabagga tamarta cusub (tusaale ahaan, transformers-ka saliidda lagu dhex geliyay/nooca qalalan ee 35kV waxay ka badan yihiin 95% codsiyada qaybta tamarta cusub).

Hadafka ugu muhiimsan ee casriyeynta heerka caadiga ah waa in la yareeyo khasaaraha gudbinta ee ka yimaada tamarta cusub. Tusaale ahaan, beddelka jiilka ee saliidda ku dhex milmay 35kV, khasaaraha aan rarka lahayn ee hufnaanta tamarta ee heerka 3aad ee heerka cusub ayaa hoos u dhacay 30% marka la barbar dhigo noocii hore (GB6451-2015), hufnaanta tamarta ee heerka 1aadna waxay hoos u dhacday 10% oo kale; khasaaraha aan rarka lahayn ee beddelka nooca qalalan ee 35kV (Heerka 3aad) ayaa hoos u dhacay 20% marka la barbar dhigo heerka warshadaha (NB/T31062-2014). Sida laga soo xigtay qiyaasaha, haddii dhammaan beddelka tamarta cusub ee Shiinaha laga hagaajiyo heerka S11 una beddelo heerka S20, qiiqa kaarboonka waxaa lagu dhimi karaa 55 milyan oo tan, oo u dhiganta 2.8 jeer korontada Saldhigga Korontada Gezhouba sanadka 2021.

Hirgelintan heerka ah ma aha oo kaliya inay kor u qaaddo isbeddelka warshadaha isbeddelka Shiinaha ee ku wajahan hufnaanta sare iyo kaarboon yar, laakiin sidoo kale waxay bixisaa qaab-dhismeed muhiim ah oo ku saabsan hufnaanta tamarta ee isku xirka shabakadaha tamarta cusub ee adduunka.

1. Baahida Smart Grid iyo AI-da oo ay wadaan: Transformers-ka Adag ee Gobolka (SSTs) ayaa noqda Xudunta Jiilka Xiga

Iyada oo ay jirto qaraxa awoodda xisaabinta AI (tusaale ahaan, tababarka moodooyinka waaweyn ee ChatGPT waxay isticmaalaan koronto la mid ah saddex maalmood gudahood sida 3,000 oo baabuur oo Tesla ah oo 320,000 kiiloomitir u socda) iyo dardargelinta dhismaha shabakadda casriga ah, transformers-ka dhaqameedku mar dambe ma dabooli karaan baahida cufnaanta awoodda sare iyo nidaaminta firfircoon. Transformers-ka adag (SSTs), oo leh faa'iidooyinkooda cabbir yar, hufnaan sare, iyo taageerada socodka awoodda laba-geesoodka ah, ayaa noqday diiradda cilmi-baarista tignoolajiyada iyo dareenka suuqa.

SST-yadu waxay isticmaalaan tiknoolajiyadda beddelka elektaroonigga ah ee awoodda sare leh. Marka la barbardhigo transformers-yada soo noqnoqda ee warshadaha dhaqameed, waxay hoos u dhigaan mugga 50%-80% iyo miisaanka 60%-80%, waxayna gaari karaan nidaaminta danabka firfircoon ee heerka millisecond iyo wax soo saarka danabka joogtada ah, taasoo ka dhigaysa kuwo si gaar ah ugu habboon xaaladaha sida xarumaha xogta AI, isku xirka shabakadda tamarta cusub, iyo saldhigyada dallacaadda aadka u degdega badan. Tusaale ahaan, warqadda cad ee ugu dambeysay ee NVIDIA waxay liis gareysaa SSTs inay tahay xalka la doorbidayo ee sahayda tooska ah ee danabka dhexdhexaadka ah ee xarumaha xogta, shirkadaha sida Jinpan Technology waxay dhammaystireen horumarinta tusaalaha SST waxayna u direen muunado NVIDIA.

In kasta oo SST-yadu ay wali ku jiraan marxaladda xaqiijinta tusaalaha/dufcad yar (la filayo in lagu xayeysiiyo heer ballaaran laga bilaabo 2028 ilaa 2030), filashooyinka suuqu waa kuwo sarreeya - warbixinta cilmi-baarista ee Guangda Securities ayaa tilmaamaysa in SST-yadu la filayo inay noqdaan horumar ku yimaada caqabadaha korontada ee ay wadaan taayirada laba-geesoodka ah ee "AI + tamarta cusub," iyadoo cabbirka suuqu uu ka kordhay 6 bilyan oo yuan sannadkii 2024 ilaa 26.4 bilyan oo yuan sannadkii 2027 (CAGR qiyaastii 64%).

1. Yaraanta Sahayda Caalamiga ah iyo Faa'iidooyinka Shiinaha: Xakamaynta Madaxbannaan ee Warshadaha oo Dhan ayaa Noqota Tartanka Aasaasiga ah

Caalamka, transformers-ka danab-dhalinta dhexe iyo kuwa sare ayaa wajahaya yaraanta sahayda oo daran: farqiga saadka ee transformers-ka korontada ee Mareykanka ayaa kor u kacay 116% marka la barbar dhigo 2019, casriyeynta shabakadda Yurub ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u socota sababtoo ah yaraanta transformers-ka, iyo mashaariicda waaweyn ee qorraxda ee Hindiya ayaa shaqo la'aan ah iyagoo sugaya transformers-ka. Marka laga soo tago xaaladdan, Shiinaha, oo leh 60% awoodda wax soo saarka adduunka, ayaa noqday ka faa'iideystaha ugu weyn.

Faa'iidooyinka ugu muhiimsan ee Shiinaha ee transformers-ka waxay ku jiraan xakamaynta madax-bannaan ee silsiladda warshadaha oo dhammaystiran:

Agabka Aasaasiga ah: Birta silikoon ee jihada u ah (walaxda "wadnaha" ee wax-soo-saarka transformers-ka) waxay gaartay 3.0325 milyan oo tan (2024), shan jeer ka badan tan Japan iyo siddeed jeer ka badan tan Mareykanka. Baosteel Group waxay dhistay khadka kaliya ee wax-soo-saarka birta silikoon ee aadka u khafiifsan ee 0.18mm adduunka, iyadoo waxqabadka uu ka sarreeyo adduunka;

Tiknoolajiyadda iyo Awoodda: Kooxda Qalabka Korontada ee Shiinaha waxay leedahay shirkado isku dhafan sida XD, Baobian, iyo Shandong Electrical Engineering si ay u sameeyaan awoodo "UHV + tamar cusub". Shirkadaha gaarka loo leeyahay sida Xinjiang Tebian iyo Jiangsu Huapeng ayaa hormuud ka ah adduunka dhoofinta qalabka cusub ee tamarta;

Waxtarka Bixinta: Wareegga keenista transformer-ka Shiinaha (tusaale ahaan, 10 bilood oo loogu talagalay transformers-yada waaweyn ee UHV) aad ayuu uga gaaban yahay kan Yurub iyo Mareykanka (in ka badan 18 bilood), kharashkuna waa ka hooseeyaa (badeecadaha isku qeexitaanku waa kala bar qiimaha kuwa Yurub iyo Mareykanka).

Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Agoosto 2025, qiimaha dhoofinta transformers-ka Shiinaha wuxuu gaaray 29.711 bilyan oo yuan, taasoo ah koror sanadle ah oo dhan 36.3%, iyadoo suuqa Yurub uu kor u kacay 138%. Macaamiisha qaar ayaa diyaar u ah inay bixiyaan qiimo dhimis 20% ah si loo hubiyo sahayda.

1. Horumarka Tiknoolajiyada iyo Casriyeynta Warshadaha: UHV iyo Tamarta Dabaysha ee Xeebaha oo ah Meelaha Muhiimka ah

Dhawaan, shirkadaha Shiinuhu waxay gaareen horumarro tignoolajiyadeed oo waaweyn oo ku saabsan UHV iyo tamarta dabaysha ee badda, iyo goobaha kale ee transformers-ka ee heerka sare ah ee dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sare, iyagoo kor u qaadaya casriyeynta warshadaha:

Beddelayaasha UHV: Beddelayaasha beddelka UHV DC ee Shirkadda Shenbian ee lagu dabaqay mashruuca Jinshang-Hubei UHV waxay hagaajiyaan heerarka dahaarka dhinaca shabakadda 5%; Beddelayaasha matoorka 1000kV UHV ee Xidian Xibian waxay hubinayaan hawlgalka waqtiga ku habboon ee mashaariicda korontada dhuxusha ee malaayiin kiilowatt ah;

Beddelayaasha Korontada Dabaysha ee Xeebaha: Shirkadda Shenbian waxay soo saartay transformer-kii ugu horreeyay adduunka ee 20Hz ee tamarta dabaysha ee badda ku shaqeeya, kaas oo loo habeeyey shabakadaha soo noqnoqda ee hooseeya, taasoo yaraynaysa khasaaraha gudbinta 15%-20%, waxaana loo adeegsaday beerta dabaysha ee xeebta ee Huaene Yuhuan Phase II;

Transformers Smart: Shirkadda Qalabka Injineerinka Korontada ee Shandong waxay soo saartay transformer saddex-wareega yar yar oo 220kV ah, kaas oo yareeya isticmaalka birta iyada oo loo marayo hagaajinta qaab-dhismeedka (tusaale ahaan, qaab-dhismeedka xoojinta taangiga) isla markaana hagaajiya hufnaanta isu-imaatinka 35%, iyadoo heerarka hufnaanta tamarta ay ka sarreeyaan heerarka qaranka.

1. Dhaqaalaha Wareega iyo Dib-u-soo-saarka: Waddo Cusub oo loogu talagalay Isbeddelka Cagaaran

Iyadoo la horumarinayo istaraatiijiyadda "dual carbon", dib-u-soo-saarka transformer-ka ayaa noqotay meel cusub oo warshadaha ah. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. waxay isticmaashaa "ku-tallaalidda neerfaha dijitaalka ah" (jajabyada dareemayaasha caqliga leh) iyo "dib-u-cusboonaysiinta xubnaha" (cusboonaysiinta dahaarka gariiradda, dialysis-ka qoto dheer ee saliidda dahaarka leh) si loogu beddelo transformers-ka 220kV ee la joojiyay qalab leh hufnaan tamar oo ka sarreysa heerarka heerka 1aad ee qaranka. Qiimuhu waa 60% oo keliya alaabada cusub, hal unug oo dib loo warshadeeyayna wuxuu badbaadin karaa 70% kharashyada iibka wuxuuna soo celin karaa waqtiga dhismaha ee qiimaha leh.

Qaabkani ma aha oo kaliya inuu yareeyo kharashka casriyeynta shabakadaha laakiin sidoo kale wuxuu yareeyaa qashinka kheyraadka - sida laga soo xigtay qiyaasaha, hoos u dhigista qiiqa kaarboonka ee ka imanaya xarun dib-u-soo-saarid ah waxay la mid tahay beerista kumanaan hektar oo kaymo ah, iyadoo la jaanqaadaysa jihada horumarinta ee "dhaqaale wareegsan."